2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 8, 2022, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2020). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2022 U.S. Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Election ratings[edit]

Latest published ratings for competitive seats[edit]

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
  • Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
District CPVI
[1] 		Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
Nov 7,
2022[3] 		IE
Nov 3,
2022[4] 		Sabato
Nov 7,
2022[5] 		Politico
Oct 27,
2022[6] 		RCP
Nov 6,
2022[7] 		Fox
Oct 21,
2022[8] 		DDHQ
Oct 27,
2022[9] 		538[a][b]
Nov 8,
2022[10] 		Econ.[c][d]
Nov 4,
2022[11] 		Winner[12]
Alaska at-large R+8 Mary Peltola (D) 51.5% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D TBD
Arizona 1 R+2 David Schweikert (R) 52.2% R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Solid R Lean R David Schweikert (R)
Arizona 2 R+6 Tom O'Halleran (D) 51.6% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Eli Crane (R)
Arizona 4 D+2 Greg Stanton (D) 61.6% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Likely D Greg Stanton (D)
Arizona 6 R+3 Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
(retiring) 		55.1% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Juan Ciscomani (R)
California 3 R+4 New seat – Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R TBD
California 6 D+7 Ami Bera (D) 56.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Ami Bera (D)
California 9 D+5 Josh Harder (D) 55.2% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Josh Harder (D)
California 13 D+4 New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D TBD
California 21 D+9 Jim Costa (D) 59.4% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Jim Costa (D)
California 22 D+5 David Valadao (R) 50.4% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup David Valadao (R)
California 23 R+8 Jay Obernolte (R) 56.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Jay Obernolte (R)
California 25 D+6 Raul Ruiz (D) 60.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Solid D Likely D Raul Ruiz (D)
California 26 D+8 Julia Brownley (D) 60.6% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Julia Brownley (D)
California 27 D+4 Mike Garcia (R) 50.0% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean D (flip) Mike Garcia (R)
California 40 R+2 Young Kim (R) 50.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Young Kim (R)
California 41 R+3 Ken Calvert (R) 57.1% R Lean R Solid R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Ken Calvert (R)
California 45 D+2 Michelle Steel (R) 51.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup Michelle Steel (R)
California 47 D+3 Katie Porter (D) 53.5% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Likely D Katie Porter (D)
California 49 D+3 Mike Levin (D) 53.1% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Lean D Mike Levin (D)
Colorado 3 R+7 Lauren Boebert (R) 51.4% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Likely R Lauren Boebert (R)
Colorado 5 R+9 Doug Lamborn (R) 57.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Doug Lamborn (R)
Colorado 7 D+4 Ed Perlmutter (D)
(retiring) 		59.1% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Brittany Pettersen (D)
Colorado 8 EVEN New seat – Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Tossup Yadira Caraveo (D)
Connecticut 2 D+3 Joe Courtney (D) 59.4% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Joe Courtney (D)
Connecticut 3 D+7 Rosa DeLauro (D) 58.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D Rosa DeLauro (D)
Connecticut 5 D+3 Jahana Hayes (D) 55.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Jahana Hayes (D)
Florida 2 R+8 Al Lawson (D) and
Neal Dunn (R) 		65.1% D; 97.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Neal Dunn (R)
Florida 4 R+6 New seat – Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Aaron Bean (R)
Florida 7 R+5 Stephanie Murphy (D)
(retiring) 		55.3% D Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Cory Mills (R)
Florida 9 D+8 Darren Soto (D) 56.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Darren Soto (D)
Florida 13 R+6 Vacant 53.0% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Anna Paulina Luna (R)
Florida 14 D+8 Kathy Castor (D) 60.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Kathy Castor (D)
Florida 15 R+4 New seat – Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Solid R Likely R Laurel Lee (R)
Florida 16 R+7 Vern Buchanan (R) 55.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Vern Buchanan (R)
Florida 22 D+7 Lois Frankel (D) 59.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D Lois Frankel (D)
Florida 23 D+5 Vacant 58.6% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D Jared Moskowitz (D)
Florida 27 EVEN María Elvira Salazar (R) 51.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Tossup María Elvira Salazar (R)
Florida 28 R+2 Carlos A. Giménez (R) 51.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Carlos A. Giménez (R)
Georgia 2 D+3 Sanford Bishop (D) 59.1% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Sanford Bishop (D)
Georgia 6 R+11 New seat – Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Rich McCormick (R)
Georgia 12 R+8 Rick W. Allen (R) 58.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Rick W. Allen (R)
Illinois 6 D+3 Sean Casten (D) 52.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Sean Casten (D)
Illinois 8 D+6 Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) 73.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
Illinois 11 D+5 Bill Foster (D) 63.3% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Bill Foster (D)
Illinois 13 D+3 New seat – Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Nikki Budzinski (D)
Illinois 14 D+4 Lauren Underwood (D) 50.7% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lauren Underwood (D)
Illinois 17 D+2 Cheri Bustos (D)
(retiring) 		52.0% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean D Lean D Eric Sorensen (D)
Indiana 1 D+3 Frank J. Mrvan (D) 56.6% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Lean D Frank J. Mrvan (D)
Iowa 1 R+3 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 49.9% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Solid R Likely R Lean R Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson (R) 51.2% R Lean R Tilt R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Lean R Ashley Hinson (R)
Iowa 3 R+3 Cindy Axne (D) 48.9% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Zach Nunn (R)
Kansas 3 R+1 Sharice Davids (D) 53.6% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Sharice Davids (D)
Maine 2 R+6 Jared Golden (D) 53.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Jared Golden (D)
Maryland 1 R+11 Andy Harris (R) 63.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Andy Harris (R)
Maryland 2 D+7 Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 67.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
Maryland 3 D+10 John Sarbanes (D) 69.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D John Sarbanes (D)
Maryland 6 D+2 David Trone (D) 58.8% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Tossup Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup David Trone (D)
Massachusetts 9 D+6 Bill Keating (D) 61.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Bill Keating (D)
Michigan 3 D+1 Peter Meijer (R)
(lost renomination) 		53.0% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean R Tossup Lean D (flip) Hillary Scholten (D)
Michigan 4 R+5 Bill Huizenga (R) 59.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Bill Huizenga (R)
Michigan 7 R+2 Elissa Slotkin (D) 50.9% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Elissa Slotkin (D)
Michigan 8 R+1 Dan Kildee (D) 54.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Dan Kildee (D)
Michigan 10 R+3 New seat – Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) John James (R)
Michigan 11 D+7 Haley Stevens (D) 50.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Haley Stevens (D)
Minnesota 1 R+7 Brad Finstad (R) 51.0% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Brad Finstad (R)
Minnesota 2 D+1 Angie Craig (D) 48.2% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean D Likely D Lean D Angie Craig (D)
Minnesota 3 D+8 Dean Phillips (D) 55.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Dean Phillips (D)
Minnesota 8 R+8 Pete Stauber (R) 56.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Pete Stauber (R)
Missouri 2 R+7 Ann Wagner (R) 51.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Ann Wagner (R)
Montana 1 R+6 New seat – Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Ryan Zinke
Nebraska 1 R+9 Mike Flood (R) 52.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Mike Flood (R)
Nebraska 2 EVEN Don Bacon (R) 50.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tossup Don Bacon (R)
Nevada 1 D+3 Dina Titus (D) 61.8% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Dina Titus (D)
Nevada 2 R+8 Mark Amodei (R) 56.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Mark Amodei (R)
Nevada 3 D+1 Susie Lee (D) 48.8% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean D Tossup Susie Lee (D)
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford (D) 50.7% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Steven Horsford (D)
New Hampshire 1 EVEN Chris Pappas (D) 51.3% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Chris Pappas (D)
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Annie Kuster (D) 53.9% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Annie Kuster (D)
New Jersey 1 D+10 Donald Norcross (D) 62.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Donald Norcross (D)
New Jersey 2 R+5 Jeff Van Drew (R) 51.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Jeff Van Drew (R)
New Jersey 3 D+5 Andy Kim (D) 53.2% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Solid D Likely D Likely D Andy Kim (D)
New Jersey 5 D+4 Josh Gottheimer (D) 53.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Josh Gottheimer (D)
New Jersey 7 R+1 Tom Malinowski (D) 50.6% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Thomas Kean Jr. (R)
New Jersey 9 D+8 Bill Pascrell (D) 65.8% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Bill Pascrell (D)
New Jersey 11 D+6 Mikie Sherrill (D) 53.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D Mikie Sherrill (D)
New Mexico 1 D+5 Melanie Stansbury (D) 60.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Melanie Stansbury (D)
New Mexico 2 D+1 Yvette Herrell (R) 53.7% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Likely R Tossup Gabe Vasquez (D)
New Mexico 3 D+4 Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) 58.7% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Safe D Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
New York 1 R+3 Lee Zeldin (R)
(retiring) 		54.9% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Nick LaLota (R)
New York 2 R+3 Andrew Garbarino (R) 52.9% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Andrew Garbarino (R)
New York 3 D+2 Thomas Suozzi (D)
(retiring) 		56.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R (flip) Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D George Santos (R)
New York 4 D+5 Kathleen Rice (D)
(retiring) 		56.1% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Anthony D'Esposito (R)
New York 11 R+6 Nicole Malliotakis (R) 53.2% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Nicole Malliotakis (R)
New York 17 D+3 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 55.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Lean D Mike Lawler (R)
New York 18 D+1 Pat Ryan (D) 51.9% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Lean D Pat Ryan (D)
New York 19 EVEN New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Marc Molinaro (R)
New York 20 D+7 Paul Tonko (D) 61.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Paul Tonko (D)
New York 22 D+1 John Katko (R)
(retiring) 		53.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Brandon Williams (R)
New York 25 D+7 Joseph Morelle (D) 59.3% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Tossup Likely D Solid D Solid D Likely D Joseph Morelle (D)
New York 26 D+8 Brian Higgins (D) 69.9% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Brian Higgins (D)
North Carolina 1 D+2 G. K. Butterfield (D)
(retiring) 		54.2% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D Solid D Likely D Don Davis (D)
North Carolina 6 D+4 Kathy Manning (D) 62.3% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Likely D Kathy Manning (D)
North Carolina 7 R+8 David Rouzer (R) 60.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R David Rouzer (R)
North Carolina 9 R+6 Richard Hudson (R) 53.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Richard Hudson (R)
North Carolina 11 R+8 Madison Cawthorn (R)
(lost renomination) 		54.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Chuck Edwards (R)
North Carolina 13 R+2 New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Tossup Wiley Nickel (D)
North Carolina 14 D+6 New seat – Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Safe D Jeff Jackson (D)
Ohio 1 D+2 Steve Chabot (R) 51.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Tossup Greg Landsman (D)
Ohio 7 R+7 Bob Gibbs (R)
(retiring) 		67.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Max Miller (R)
Ohio 9 R+3 Marcy Kaptur (D) 63.1% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean R (flip) Likely D Tossup Marcy Kaptur (D)
Ohio 10 R+4 Mike Turner (R) 58.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Mike Turner (R)
Ohio 13 R+1 Tim Ryan (D)
(retiring) 		52.5% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tossup Emilia Sykes (D)
Ohio 15 R+6 Mike Carey (R) 58.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Mike Carey (R)
Oregon 4 D+4 Peter DeFazio (D)
(retiring) 		51.5% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Val Hoyle (D)
Oregon 5 D+2 Kurt Schrader (D)
(lost renomination) 		51.9% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)
Oregon 6 D+4 New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Andrea Salinas (D)
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 56.6% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Solid R Likely R Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 6 D+5 Chrissy Houlahan (D) 56.1% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Chrissy Houlahan (D)
Pennsylvania 7 R+2 Susan Wild (D) 51.9% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Susan Wild (D)
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Matt Cartwright (D) 51.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Matt Cartwright (D)
Pennsylvania 10 R+5 Scott Perry (R) 53.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Lean R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Scott Perry (R)
Pennsylvania 12 D+8 Mike Doyle (D)
(retiring) 		69.3% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Summer Lee (D)
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN Conor Lamb (D)
(retiring) 		51.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Chris Deluzio (D)
Rhode Island 2 D+4 James Langevin (D)
(retiring) 		58.2% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Seth Magaziner (D)
South Carolina 1 R+7 Nancy Mace (R) 50.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Nancy Mace (R)
Tennessee 5 R+9 Jim Cooper (D)
(retiring) 		100.0% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Andy Ogles (R)
Texas 15 R+1 New seat – Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Monica De La Cruz (R)
Texas 23 R+5 Tony Gonzales (R) 50.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Tony Gonzales (R)
Texas 28 D+3 Henry Cuellar (D) 58.3% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Henry Cuellar (D)
Texas 34 D+9 Vicente Gonzalez (D) and
Mayra Flores (R) 		50.5% D; 50.9% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Vicente Gonzalez (D)
Virginia 1 R+6 Rob Wittman (R) 58.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Rob Wittman (R)
Virginia 2 R+2 Elaine Luria (D) 51.6% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Jen Kiggans (R)
Virginia 5 R+7 Bob Good (R) 52.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Bob Good (R)
Virginia 7 D+1 Abigail Spanberger (D) 50.8% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Abigail Spanberger (D)
Virginia 10 D+6 Jennifer Wexton (D) 56.5% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Jennifer Wexton (D)
Washington 3 R+5 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
(lost renomination) 		56.4% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Washington 5 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 61.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
Washington 6 D+6 Derek Kilmer (D) 59.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Derek Kilmer (D)
Washington 8 D+1 Kim Schrier (D) 51.7% D Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Kim Schrier (D)
Washington 10 D+7 Marilyn Strickland (D) 49.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D Marilyn Strickland (D)
Wisconsin 1 R+3 Bryan Steil (R) 59.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R Bryan Steil (R)
Wisconsin 3 R+4 Ron Kind (D)
(retiring) 		51.3% D Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Derrick Van Orden (R)
Overall D – 191
R – 211
33 tossups 		D – 199
R – 216
20 tossups 		D – 198
R – 237 		D – 195
R – 213
27 tossups 		D – 174
R – 227
38 tossups 		D – 186
R – 216
33 tossups 		D – 200
R – 223
12 tossups 		D – 203
R – 219
13 tossups 		D – 200
R – 208
27 tossups 		D - TBD Decrease TBD
R - TBD Increase TBD
District CPVI Incumbent Previous result Cook IE Sabato Politico RCP Fox DDHQ 538 Econ. Winner
  1. ^ FiveThirtyEight has three separate models for their House and Senate ratings: Lite (polling data only), Classic (polls, fundraising, and past voting patterns), and Deluxe (Classic alongside experts' ratings). This table uses the Classic model.
  2. ^ Category ranges:
    • Tossup: <60% both candidates
    • Lean: ≥60%
    • Likely: ≥75%
    • Solid: ≥95%
  3. ^ The Economist runs 10,000 simulations daily to determine their forecast ratings, which are based on statistical probability.
  4. ^ Category ranges:
    • Tossup ("Uncertain"): <65% both parties
    • Lean ("Likely"): 60-85%
    • Likely ("Very Likely"): 85-99%
    • Safe: ≥99%

Generic ballot polls[edit]

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2022 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican Lead
RealClearPolitics November 8, 2022 October 18 – November 6, 2022 45.5% 48.0% +2.5
FiveThirtyEight November 8, 2022 October 26 – November 8, 2022 45.7% 46.9% +1.2
Average 45.6% 47.4% +1.8

Party listings[edit]

The campaign committees for the two parties (the DCCC and NRCC) publish their own lists of targeted seats.

Democratic-held seats[edit]

The NRCC is now targeting 85 Democratic held seats.[13] They released their initial list February 10, 2021[14] and added 10 seats to the initial list on May 4, 2021[15] and a further 13 seats November 3, 2021 after the favorable election night results. They added eight additional seats on March 30, 2022.[16] The first two lists were published before redistricting, however the 3rd list begins to incorporate redistricting impacts such as Colorado's 7th congressional district. Seats in bold were included in the DCCC's frontline seats in March 2021 or were added in January 2022.[17][18]

Republican target seats
  1. Arizona 1: Tom O'Halleran
  2. Arizona 4: Greg Stanton
  3. Arizona 6: Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring)
  4. California 3: None (new seat)
  5. California 7: Ami Bera
  6. California 9: Josh Harder
  7. California 13: Barbara Lee (running in California 12)
  8. California 20: Jim Costa
  9. California 26: Julia Brownley
  10. California 36: Raul Ruiz
  11. California 47: Katie Porter
  12. California 49: Mike Levin
  13. Colorado 7: Ed Perlmutter (retiring)
  14. Connecticut 2: Joe Courtney
  15. Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
  16. Florida 7: Stephanie Murphy (retiring)
  17. Florida 9: Darren Soto
  18. Florida 13: Charlie Crist (retiring)
  19. Florida 14: Kathy Castor
  20. Florida 22: Ted Deutch (retiring)
  21. Georgia 2: Sanford Bishop
  22. Georgia 6: Lucy McBath (running in Georgia's 7th congressional district)
  23. Georgia 7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (lost renomination)
  24. Illinois 3: Marie Newman (lost renomination)
  25. Illinois 6: Sean Casten
  26. Illinois 8: Raja Krishnamoorthi
  27. Illinois 11: Bill Foster
  28. Illinois 14: Lauren Underwood
  29. Illinois 17: Cheri Bustos (retiring)
  30. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
  31. Iowa 3: Cindy Axne
  32. Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
  33. Maine 2: Jared Golden
  34. Maryland 2: Dutch Ruppersberger
  35. Maryland 3: John Sarbanes
  36. Maryland 6: David Trone
  37. Michigan 7: Elissa Slotkin
  38. Michigan 8: Dan Kildee
  39. Michigan 11: Haley Stevens
  40. Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
  41. Minnesota 3: Dean Phillips
  42. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
  43. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
  44. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
  45. New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
  46. New Hampshire 2: Annie Kuster
  47. New Jersey 3: Andy Kim
  48. New Jersey 5: Josh Gottheimer
  49. New Jersey 7: Tom Malinowski
  50. New Jersey 11: Mikie Sherrill
  51. New Mexico 1: Melanie Stansbury
  52. New Mexico 3: Teresa Leger Fernandez
  53. New York 3: Thomas Suozzi
  54. New York 4: Kathleen Rice (retiring)
  55. New York 17: Mondaire Jones (lost renomination)
  56. New York 18: Sean Patrick Maloney (running in New York's 17th congressional district)
  57. New York 20: Paul Tonko
  58. New York 25: Joe Morelle
  59. New York 26: Brian Higgins
  60. North Carolina 1: G.K. Butterfield (retiring)
  61. North Carolina 2: Deborah Ross
  62. North Carolina 6: Kathy Manning
  63. North Carolina 14: Jeff Jackson
  64. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
  65. Ohio 13: Tim Ryan (retiring)
  66. Oregon 4: Peter DeFazio (retiring)
  67. Oregon 5: Kurt Schrader (lost renomination)
  68. Oregon 6: None (new seat)
  69. Pennsylvania 4: Madeleine Dean
  70. Pennsylvania 5: Mary Gay Scanlon
  71. Pennsylvania 6: Chrissy Houlahan
  72. Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
  73. Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
  74. Pennsylvania 12: Mike Doyle (retiring)
  75. Pennsylvania 17: Conor Lamb (retiring)
  76. Tennessee 5: Jim Cooper (retiring)
  77. Texas 7: Lizzie Fletcher
  78. Texas 15: Vicente Gonzalez (running in Texas's 34th congressional district)
  79. Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
  80. Texas 32: Colin Allred
  81. Virginia 2: Elaine Luria
  82. Virginia 7: Abigail Spanberger
  83. Virginia 10: Jennifer Wexton
  84. Washington 8: Kim Schrier
  85. Wisconsin 3: Ron Kind (retiring)

Republican-held seats[edit]

On April 6, 2021, the DCCC released their list of target seats, including open and Republican-held seats.[19] This list was published before redistricting. Several seats were added in January 2022.[20][21]

Democratic target seats
  1. Arizona 1: David Schweikert
  2. California 22: David Valadao
  3. California 27: Mike Garcia
  4. California 40: Young Kim
  5. California 41: Ken Calvert
  6. California 45: Michelle Steel
  7. Florida 26: Carlos Giménez
  8. Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
  9. Indiana 5: Victoria Spartz
  10. Iowa 1: Ashley Hinson
  11. Iowa 2: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  12. Maryland 1: Andy Harris
  13. Michigan 3: Peter Meijer (lost renomination)
  14. Missouri 2: Ann Wagner
  15. Nebraska 2: Don Bacon
  16. New Mexico 2: Yvette Herrell
  17. New York 2: Andrew Garbarino
  18. New York 22: John Katko (retiring)
  19. New York 24: Claudia Tenney
  20. Ohio 1: Steve Chabot
  21. Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
  22. Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
  23. Texas 23: Tony Gonzales
  24. Texas 24: Beth Van Duyne
  25. Utah 4: Burgess Owens

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
  2. ^ "House election results 2020". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  3. ^ "2022 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
  4. ^ "2022 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  5. ^ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 14, 2021. Retrieved October 19, 2021.
  6. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2022.
  7. ^ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  8. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. September 20, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
  9. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  10. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  11. ^ "The Economist's 2022 House forecasts". The Economist. September 16, 2022. Retrieved September 17, 2022.
  12. ^ "House Election Results". The New York Times. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
  13. ^ "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 13 New Targets". November 3, 2021.
  14. ^ "NRCC Announces 47 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities for 2022 Cycle". NRCC. February 10, 2021. Retrieved February 22, 2021.
  15. ^ "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 10 New Targets Following Reapportionment". nrcc.org. NRCC. May 4, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  16. ^ "House GOP campaign arm adds new seats to target list". March 30, 2022.
  17. ^ "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". DCCC. March 1, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
  18. ^ "DCCC expands list of vulnerable House Democrats". The Hill. January 27, 2022.
  19. ^ "DCCC Announces 2021-2022 Districts In Play". dccc.org. DCCC. April 6, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
  20. ^ "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". nbcnews.com. NBC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  21. ^ >"DCCC Announces Changes To 2022 House Battlefield". dccc.org. DCCC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 29, 2022.
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